An Unconvincing DPP Win is Fertile Group for Beijing's Post Election Moves in Taiwan

A Weak President Lai is Beijing’s New Goal in Taiwan

The DPP is going to win the coming January 13 elections here in Taiwan.  William Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lead with a comfortable margin in every poll of the last few months.  The other three candidates are dead in the water, and now are embroiled in a matchmaking game among themselves to see if they can combine to beat the DPP.  They can’t.

But while a Lai win is important for Taiwan’s continued security alliances with Japan and the United States, what is becoming more apparent is Beijing has accepted there will be a DPP victory, and with that, its most likely we will see a tactics change by the mainland.  If there is going to be a President Lai, Beijing is doing all they can to make certain it is a weak President Lai that doesn’t have a mandate.

For Beijing the best possible outcome now for the upcoming Taiwan presidential election is to keep the DPP’s William Lai under 50%. Below 45% would pose real governing issues for the Lai.  A DPP without a clear majority, where the central question in Taiwan revolves around “war or peace” is an operating environment quite favorable to Beijing for causing all sorts of trouble.  Folks shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking the DPP has a popular position among Taiwanese for dealing with China.

Even now the DPP is out of step with most Taiwanese on how to interact with China.  A just released poll in United Daily News has 74% of all respondents favoring increased interaction with the mainland. 60% favor the status quo, and there is a drop in those favoring Taiwanese independence from 29% to 25%.  DPP policy positions do not favor more interaction with China, don’t really endorse the status quo, and won’t walk away from independence.

https://udn.com/vote2024/story/6656/7499560?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_index

More interesting to Beijing as well as Tokyo and Washington were the reveals. If there was to be a fight with the mainland, 70% of Taiwanese between the ages of 20-29 say they are not fighting, 54% of all ages saying the same, and 46% of all Taiwanese believing the US will not come to save Taiwan.  Not great news for Taiwan in foreign capitals, and very much a mood Beijing will seek to exploit.

If it’s 2025, a then President Lai elected with 42% of the vote is not talking with the Chinese, the economy is stagnant, Xi Jinping starts ramping things up, and then demands talks; —what happens?

Count on Terry Gou or Mayor Ko stepping onto the stage. Beijing then points out the others received 58% of the vote, while the currently unpopular DPP received only 42%.  Xi welcomes Gou, Ko, or both, to Beijing and talks start. 

Lai and the DPP do what?

President Tsai has tire tracks on her head from the KMT going up to Beijing to shoeshine. However Tsai won 53% of the vote, demolished the KMT, and has a clear mandate.  That all changes for Beijing if they are facing a candidate who garnered under 50% of the vote, and it really gets attractive to start trouble in Taiwan if Lai is below 45%.

Think of how the engagement crowd in DC, Brookings or Quincy Institute, uses these actions to support a peaceful outcome.

At the end of the election cycle the most important thing to keep Beijing at bay is we, and I mean “we”, as it is in US interest for Lai to have a mandate, have a president in Taiwan who has achieved over 50% of the vote or damn close to it.  A weak president, one who achieves just barely over 40% is basically a kickoff announcement for Beijing to start splitting the Taiwanese public.