Did Japan Just Say, "We're in on Taiwan"?
And does the PLA & PLAN believe him?
Ino Toshiro, Japan’s State Minister of Defense said late last week, “If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, similar to the way they supported Ukraine when we have witnessed Russia’s aggression, then, yes, it would be very possible we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan”.
Deciphering Japanese Defense Ministry messaging would drive a Sinologist to drink, but with Japanese military advisors in Taiwan discussing how to beat a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, and there now being a couple of billion dollars of new long range weapons positioned in the southern Nansei islands, just north of Taiwan, it’s safe the say Japan’s strict neutrality is a policy of the past when it comes to Taiwan’s defense.
Rehashing the strategic situation in terms of the Japanese coming in defend Taiwan is for the talking heads to draw out.
That’s not the most important aspect of this new situation. What matters is the PLA commanders now see a significant military force located less than 130 miles north of Taiwan with an ability to cover the straits with ground based anti-ship missiles, submarines, and air power. What PLAN commander sails his fleet towards Taiwan with that threat staring down at them?
I am not certain of how things transpire, but with little doubt it is safe to say that if Xi makes a go for Taiwan, his military commanders are going to take a serious look at taking out Japanese military assets in the area. That means Japan is all in, and so are we.
Have at it.
I admit I have always assumed the JSDF would end up fighting the PLAN if the latter tried to invade or blockade Taiwan.
As I'm sure you are well aware Yonaguni Island is just over 100km as the seabird flies from the nearest bit of Taiwan so there's almost no way that they can not infringe on Japanese waters/air space between Taiwan and Yonaguni if they want to blockade Taiwan successfully.
If they don't blockade the ~150km ocean distance from Keelung to Yonaguni then they can't effectively blockade Taiwan. If they do blockade it and in the process some assets get their location wrong (which is a few seconds of inattention in an aircraft) they violate Japanese territory. My feeling is that there's a faction within the SDF (if not the government) that would react to such incursions by trying to shoot down the aircraft involved (or sink the ships...). That would automatically cause the PLAN/PLAAF to attack whatever SDF asset was involved in retaliation and then we're off to the races. A war with the PRC that was perceived to be caused by the PRC attacking Japan would be pretty popular IMO (and I live in Japan) because there's a lot of latent hostility to the PRC, particularly thanks to COVID