The CCP Was Expecting a Harris Win. It Didn’t Happen and Trump’s Election is Changing Xi’s GamePlan

In 2016 all of Asia was counting on a Hillary win. When Donald Trump was crowned as winner of the 2016 Presidential race there was disbelief, followed by a mad run around Washington DC by Asian governments trying to meet anyone in the GOP establishment who could offer an opening to the Trump Team.  

China was part of this mad dash around. 

In 2024, well, there were a few countries who saw Trump‘s victory as a probability, Japan and Singapore being the two I considered to have the most accurate forecasting. But China’s Foreign Ministry was off again.  

The Chinese Communist Party, CCP, was betting on Kamala Harris winning.  Think about who is advising the CCP when it comes to US politics.  There’s not anybody attending conferences on China in Beijing or at the Asia society who are MAGA.

The expectation of Xi Jinping, his top advisors, and PLA generals, was a continuation of a Democratic Party ruling the United States that was consistently cutting defense spending, and pulling back in terms of confrontation with the CCP across the world.

Now they’ve got Trump. All bets are off. From actions around Taiwan and the South China Sea, to forceful challenges in terms of tariffs and restrictions on Chinese access to US technologies, there’s a hard line that’s coming that is far beyond what the Biden administration was undertaking.

In fairness, the Biden administration was not soft on China, but it’s hard to be tough on a geopolitical enemy when you’re cutting your defense budget and pulling back in terms of where you are willing to confront the CCP.

Maybe the CCP will continue on the same path they’re on now; belligerence, and a complete disregard for the interest of other nations.  I think Xi would like to continue on their destructive walkabout throughout the world.

But I don’t think that’s gonna be the case with Trump and a team of China Hawks now in the White House.

I fully expect Trump to drive the CCP crazy with his offers of great deals while at the same time smacking them around like a redheaded stepchild. I am convinced, after talking to many people over the past four years that Xi and his top folks loath Trump. That dislike of Trump is also probably what drove them in large part to their wishful thinking about a Harris victory.

There’s a lot of people making predictions about what China is gonna be doing in the next year. We are a few days away from a new president. My suggestion would be if you were making a prediction about what was gonna happen based on pre-election metrics, the Chinese thinking they would be opposite Harris, you might want to reconsider your conclusions.

Trump is in office now.  Trump is going to change things, and that includes the plans of the Chinese communist party, and the PLA going forward.