Trump’s Challenge to Xi May be the Entire Story
“Everyone has a plan until you get punched the face.”
When you spend enough time around experts on China, “China hands”, it starts to become obvious that for the vast majority there is an accepted doctrine, mindset, if you will; of China being superior to the West in just about every way. Whether diplomatic skills, where we were told by Kissinger, “the Chinese play the long game”, or sycophants like Hank Greenberg or Hank Paulson, who just wait for a subject to cross by, and then earnestly explain how China is superior; its hard find a subject from which China hands will not conclude China is just better than us.
President Trump never bought into the China myth, even more deliberately he doesn’t buy into the competence or validity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For Trump, China is a business opportunity at best, a destroyer of American jobs and a rival for global leadership at its worst. The US President prefers the latter but is prepared to deal with the former.
Trump long ago concluded China was ripping the US off in trade. In 2017 he noted that Xi Jinping wasn’t going to do anything about the trade disparity and so President Trump did what he has always done to a business or political adversary; he punched Xi in the face with unilateral tariffs and a deepening of defense ties with Japan.
In 2025 Donald Trump is back in office, and once again he walked across the school yard, picked out the bully, and smack. We have a new tariff battle between he and Xi Jinping. Just like he has done with the Panama Canal and TikTok, Trump makes no bones about targeting Xi.
Protocol and respect for Chinese tradition are out the door with Trump. Concerns with the workings of the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, are meaningless to President Trump.
For the last 50 years the accepted way to deal with the CCP was to make it about policy, make it about the system. Striking out a particular leader was just not in the diplomatic playbook. The logic for non-confrontation with a Chinese leader seemed solid. Face is everything in China, and if you make a leader lose Face, then you talks go nowhere.
But Donald Trump doesn’t care about Face. Does anyone think that Trump thinks Xi holds some special status where Trump doesn’t get to have a go at him? Why would we not think Trump doesn’t understand that the more he can put Xi to the test externally, the more Xi will feel the pressure internally. It’s high stakes poker. It’s also typical Trump.
And, it seems to be working. Xi was in Vietnam yesterday shining shoes and attempting to divert the Vietnamese away from his nemesis Trump. Xi is out speaking, sending his minions out as well; with the message that he and the CCP will not bow to Trump and his Americans. These actions are not part of the usual CCP plan. Trump has them off their game.
China scholars, diplomatic elites, CCP officials, and even President Xi, follow a plan when it comes to how the world is supposed to deal with the CCP and Chinese leaders. It’s a plan that has worked well for Xi and the CCP.
Only one problem. President Trump doesn’t like the plan and has no intention of letting any opponents plan determine his tactics. So, the world needs to get ready, and diplomats might want to consider options as Trump enters the ring with Xi. For there is wisdom in the words of noted diplomat Mike Tyson, “Everyone’s got a plan, until someone punches you in the face”.
Same crap we heard about the Soviets in the 70s and early 80s. How efficient their economy was and how they would beat the GNP of the USA any day. Though it was counter intuitive to all the laws of economics that's what the 'experts' said, including the CIA. Didn't buy it then and I don't buy it now.
I sure hope this is true. I don't know what to believe these days. On the one hand, CCP propaganda is relentless and omnipresent especially if you have Tik Tok. US mainstream media is so vested in bringing down Trump above all else they have little credibility. Wall Street is freaked out over downturn in stock market. So I have to factor all that into the equation. Yet Team Trump seems to be all over the place with on again off again tariffs, and I see the same pattern on other issues (e.g. Ukraine/Russia, taking on Iran, etc.). Inconsistencies? Blinking? Art of Deal? Keeping everyone off balance? Lack of a detailed plan and just winging it? Are we playing a bluff hand of poker and China is playing 3D chess? I'm all in re: Trump and America but nervous and uncertain about where things are heading and seems like there are so many adversaries at every turn. China's engineering and manufacturing prowess does make them seem 10 feet tall compared to our crumbling infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities and failed elite policies of both parties over past 50 yrs. Does that translate into military on things like shipbuilding and drone warfare? Like so many I'm prepared to ride things out and agree with Trump just worried about how things will turn out.