Yes, Taiwan Will Fight
Of course, the Taiwanese will fight. The PLA will make them.
Eight years ago, if asked whether the Taiwanese people would fight should the Chinese Communist Party decide to invade, I would have hesitated with a response. Coming off President Ma’s eight years in office there was no sense of urgency in Taiwan as they had yet to witness the worst of Xi Jinping inside China, the persecution of Hong Kong, or more happily, the success President Tsai has reaped in leading the people to a recovery of their Taiwanese identity.
Eight years may not seem like a long time, and in fairness to past leaders there was already a shift underway in building the identity of the Taiwan people as separate from China. But 2016, maybe even earlier, was then. This is now. Taiwan fights.
What secures my belief they will fight?
Taiwanese understand the option of not fighting probably leads to the same exact ending. The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) lands. A pacification program that resembles Xingjiang gets underway. Political opponents of the CCP, there are millions, are rounded up. The CCP, being the CCP, “confiscates“ what they need.
A gaggle of the worst sorts will show up from the mainland to “administer” Taiwan. Good governance is not their mission. Newly shipped over mainland settlers, men, will be bunked into Taiwanese family homes. It’s happening in Tibet and Xingjiang. Looting will be on an industrial scale, including containers full of artwork and stolen cars shipped back to the mainland.
Then it gets nasty. One night a few drunken PLA soldiers decide it's rape time. Of course, the brothers and fathers of the young women aren't crazy about that and so the PLA ends up killing 30 or 40 young men and their dads. The resistance, and there will be one, pulls out the guns that disappeared from the Taiwanese military during the surrender. Street fights turn into mountain fights, marching through villages turns into massacres and reprisals.
As Taiwanese friends explained to me after we discussed these scenarios; “might as well fight them on the beaches because we know we're going to be picking up guns a month after they show up”. (Let me point out I never bring up this cheerful topic. It usually emerges as China-Taiwan-US politics discussed).
The Taiwanese are a free people. Free people fight. Doesn't mean they win. But does mean they fight.
I know a different Taiwan from many of those who visit Taipei to discuss cross-straits politics. Comes from two decades in local media along with two decades in the real estate and construction industry. I've also had the great privilege of heading into the mountains with Catholic friends who support Taiwanese indigenous communities. An interesting group of folks, along with the Vietnamese, for the PLA to worry about.
The many different tribes of the indigenous peoples have a long history of fighting invaders. If they were willing to take on the Japanese and then the KMT, why would we think the PLA is going to catch a break?
Same with the 150,000 plus Vietnamese immigrant community, over 40,000 of their kids having served in Taiwan armed forces. We all know of the love between the Chinese and Vietnamese.
The idea that there is some war game scenario that determines the actions of these two groups, and a couple of million Taiwanese who don’t feel like bowing to communists’ invaders, especially if the CCP starts persecuting them, is ridiculous. Afghanistan. Vietnam. Ukraine. People just don’t roll over for invaders because an expert in DC thinks they don’t have a chance.
Its no wonder outsiders question Taiwanese willingness to fight. Too often those from the West who visit Taiwan meet CCP shills, the KMT. Almost as bad is getting a glimpse of the DPP Arts & Crafts Club that populates Taipei DPP politics. The KMT tries to convince all visitors to Taiwan that the Taiwanese people only care about money and are cowardly lot. The Arts & Crafts Club are far more pleasant. However inspiring confidence in Taiwan’s fighting ability is not their strong suit.
Yet, for the vast majority of Taiwan it's obvious most know there's only three choices if the CCP decides to try and take Taiwan with the PLA.
They fight before the invasion. They fight after the invasion. Or they live as second-class citizens, on their own land, under subjugation of the CCP.
Third option isn't going to happen. And option one beats the hell out of option two. Taiwan fights.
Shit man, it was from the opinion survey. Something like at least 15,000 people took the survey. It's not like i personally believe it. Heck, I dont even want it to be true. I didn't make it up. TW doesnt have a lot of accomplishments that can use as a culturally unifying action. The KMT and by extension the education system, def the military one, of TW push this. Why do you think the TW military is a joke of a force that persistently undermines itself and I would say refuse to reform but they have taken american educated officers ,educated at american expense, to reform their military and pigeon holed EVERY SINGLE one of them. They push a unity of the Chinese people ideology, the accomplishments of CCP are portrayed as a greater accomplishment of the chinese people thus to be looked upto. Plus you know the shitshow that is the tw government. US congress gets a lot of hate for how it runs but at least they don't have full house brawls on the floor. It's not hard to convince a population dominated by the old and economically integrated that the CCP is one doing the good job.
The most obvious example is Hong Kong. Have the things you've mentioned happened in Hong Kong. Why haven't your used Hong Kong as an example?
It seems to me that there are certainly things that happened in Hong Kong one could point to and object to. But I don't see any rape gangs or mass looting. I don't see Chinese soldiers quartered in every home.
I mostly just see a place that, in the grand scheme of things, isn't all that different than before.
Perhaps what happened in HK is worth fighting over, but at the end of the day most people in HK just kind of went on with their lives. They complained, they had some street protests, some moved away and some caused more of a ruckus. But they aren't hiding out in the hills trying to ambush PLA patrols.
People in Taiwan will fight because some of them want to fight and because the government will tell them to fight and there will be punishment if they don't. They might win! If not and the government falls there won't be an insurrection. People might leave and they might bitch and they might protest. But I guarantee Taiwanese families aren't going to lose their one kid fighting a guerrilla campaign because they don't want to turn out like Hong Kong.