8 Comments
Feb 4Edited

Shit man, it was from the opinion survey. Something like at least 15,000 people took the survey. It's not like i personally believe it. Heck, I dont even want it to be true. I didn't make it up. TW doesnt have a lot of accomplishments that can use as a culturally unifying action. The KMT and by extension the education system, def the military one, of TW push this. Why do you think the TW military is a joke of a force that persistently undermines itself and I would say refuse to reform but they have taken american educated officers ,educated at american expense, to reform their military and pigeon holed EVERY SINGLE one of them. They push a unity of the Chinese people ideology, the accomplishments of CCP are portrayed as a greater accomplishment of the chinese people thus to be looked upto. Plus you know the shitshow that is the tw government. US congress gets a lot of hate for how it runs but at least they don't have full house brawls on the floor. It's not hard to convince a population dominated by the old and economically integrated that the CCP is one doing the good job.

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The most obvious example is Hong Kong. Have the things you've mentioned happened in Hong Kong. Why haven't your used Hong Kong as an example?

It seems to me that there are certainly things that happened in Hong Kong one could point to and object to. But I don't see any rape gangs or mass looting. I don't see Chinese soldiers quartered in every home.

I mostly just see a place that, in the grand scheme of things, isn't all that different than before.

Perhaps what happened in HK is worth fighting over, but at the end of the day most people in HK just kind of went on with their lives. They complained, they had some street protests, some moved away and some caused more of a ruckus. But they aren't hiding out in the hills trying to ambush PLA patrols.

People in Taiwan will fight because some of them want to fight and because the government will tell them to fight and there will be punishment if they don't. They might win! If not and the government falls there won't be an insurrection. People might leave and they might bitch and they might protest. But I guarantee Taiwanese families aren't going to lose their one kid fighting a guerrilla campaign because they don't want to turn out like Hong Kong.

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The article fails to illustrate the premise. There is nothing here that says the Taiwanese will. Every opinion survey I have ever seen asking this direct question says no. The Taiwanese will not fight maybe the old have illusions of it but the young fighting age man. They consistently and in the safe majority, iirc 70%, say no I will not fight. They see no basic difference between the countries and look admirably to CCP and the achievements brought by them for the Chinese people.

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Every survey I’ve seen shows at least 40% say they will fight. I don’t think those 40% are going to wait on the rest.

I fully expect China Airlines to be achieving $15,000 and economy class seat for flights to singapore.

But there is this belief that I think is a complete fallacy that there’s a lack of toughness in the Taiwanese people, or that there is some sort of group, think, where they all come together and decide it’s not gonna be a problem and they’ll just let the PLA roll in.

It is taken for gospel at all levels of the DPP, that if the Chinese come in the seniors at the Dan, all the way down to lane chiefs will suffer the same fate as the Uyghurs...

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Disregarding whether or not they will fight, your last statement is utterly ridiculous: "They see no basic difference between the countries and look admirably to CCP and the achievements brought by them for the Chinese people."

五毛 caught live in action. There is absolutely nothing admirable to be found in the CCPs governance, especially not through the Taiwanese lense. Also, while some pragmatism certainly exists in the population (the brain drain exists for a reason), ascribing admiration and "seeing no basic difference between to the countries" to Taiwanese society is such horseshit. You really need some better phrases to throw around for you shilling.

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The topic of this article is one of the linchpin questions that carry huge weight in deciding whether or not to defend Taiwan in the face of CCP aggression. Central to the discussion is "why" we would. Conventional wisdom has gravitated to high end chip production vice "defending democracy". Thinking is that the CCP wants the production facilities, so Taiwan can literally "hold them hostage" by threatening to destroy them if invaded. Assessing the effects of that approach is...complicated...especially when looked at from the CCP and the U.S. perspective. One of the reasons (among many!) that Russia failed so badly in UKR was their "soft" approach eschewing artillery prep of areas of advance, etc. Given the proximity of Taiwan to the PLA rocket forces, airpower, etc, would be surprised if (IF) CCP goes kinetic, it will be soft. Xi ensuring his legacy is literally the "decision joker" in the deck of playing cards in this game.

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Tawain can put 2 million men into prepared defenses in 72 hours armed with American weapons. The entire Red Ampib lift capacity is 100K. There is no possibility of Red China taking Tawain by direct attack.

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The war in Ukraine has shown that drones can beat tanks. And bigger drones can sink ships. Taiwan has thousands of little machine shops and the like that can make drones. Presuming that the warheads/explosives are available (and one strongly suspects they will be) then PLA invaders will find out just how nasty drones can be.

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